Can we discuss "herd immunity"

[cartersmom]

Perhaps I am having a crisis, but the more I read on this "Phenomenon", the more confused I become. Please be patient with me as I am trying to learn here.

My understanding of herd immunity is that the term really applies to natural immunity. So when a certain % of people is approached who have naturally aquired said diease, the incidence of the disease go down. Provaxers have conveniently applied this concept to artificial vaccine induced immunity and insist the same principal applies. I also know that the % that needs to be met seems to magically change periodically.

It also seems to be however, that when immunization rates dip for certain diseases, the number of cases does go up (at least this is what is reported...if it is false I need to know where to go to get acurate info). For example, after the whole Wakefield thing in the late 90's, parents feared the MMR and immunization rates dropped, and cases of measles was on the rise.

Although it seems to be a question of whether vaccines work at all....it does seem that there is a direct correlation to immunization and decreases in certain diseases (ie the HIB vaccine). I mean certain vaccines are effective are they not? (I'm not saying I believe the risk outweighs the benefit). This is directly tied into the whole herd immunity concept. Herd immunity would rely on the assumption that vaccines actually work almost all of the time.

I'm looking to get a clearer picture of herd immunity, if it is real or just unsubstantiated concept. If so where can I find evidence that it is bunk??

[Seaweed]

I think it depends on the disease itself if there is such a thing as herd immunity, or what the threshhold is if there is herd immunity. eg our immunity to measles is a series of continued infections so, in order to remain immune, we need to be constantly exposed to the disease. Or theoretically regularly vaxed but I would doubt that works properly. I am sure I read recently too ( probably here ) that we needed to be exposed regularly to chicken pox in order not to get shingles. Then there are diseases like meningitis B which are a natural part of our bodies bacteria. It is the terrain ie our lifestyle issues which make them become nasty.

[cartersmom]

I want to bump this up and see if anyone else would like to respond. I still struggle with the herd immunity arguement with provax folks I get into discussions with. I understand it would not apply to all diseases/vaccines. Im particularly interested in measles since there is a measles "outbreak" (eyeroll) going on right now. When a provax throws herd immunity at you particularly in regards to measles- how do you reply?

[Piotr]

Measles and the "herd immunity" is also very intriguing to me.

In my opinion:
- there was no such thing as "natural herd immunity" understood as protection of non-immune people through high rate of immune people: The evolutional program (for some reason) was to get anyone infected with measles in the childhood (maximum up to the age of 20) so that subsequent exposures would not cause any complications. There were children who did not develop symptoms typical to measles but they must have had silent infection without any manifestation , see for example this polish vaccine trial where 16% of children in the age 9 to 36 months had no evidence of measles but had antibodies (50% of the children in trial came from orphanages) http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2427926/pdf/bullwho00196-0056.pdf
- and there is no such thing as "lifetime immunity": I agree with the statement above "in order to remain immune, we need to be constantly exposed to the disease".
- only passive immunity for breastfed babies was in place

furthermore
- there is such thing as vaccine-induced herd immunity, because live-virus vaccines cause the body to get through a "mild" measles infection
- as a consequence vaccination eliminated virus from the environment to a great extent, so that constant exposure is not possible and this leads to many people being so-called "susceptible" (probably also people who got natural measles?)
- passive immunity for breastfed babies is not in place to the same extent as before (due to lack of constant exposure)
- if vaccination rates drop the the evolutional program kicks in and we children get measles

Discussion with provax always goes back to measles herd immunity or polio. Some of my favorite responses are:
- once the measles vaccine became available in 1975 many doctors and parents refused to take it, they did not see any valid reason for skipping this childhood illness and were complaining about the expansion of immunization schedule - that is the history of mass vaccination in Poland. It took 3 years of propaganda to get 50% children from a particular year vaccinated on schedule.
- with the mass vaccination and growing number of "susceptible" adults we became dependent on this pharmaceutical product to be given to babies in order to protect adults. This is new money-driven concept of protection.
- As a consequence of vaccine-driven herd immunity children immunization is needed as protection to "susceptible" adults, however with the growing number of viruses in one shot (previously single M, M, R and now only MMR, maybe in the near future MMRV only, and in some decades MMRV+other 10 live viruses only...) children are forced to get more and more stuff at one time without any alternatives (except for rejection).

I am also interested in the experience of others who also discuss this with provax people.

[Milla's Mum]

Sorry I don't have anything to add but I would be interested in others' experiences also, as I agree, herd immunity is always thrown out there by provaxxers and I never seem to know what to say back. Therefore I usually keep my views to myself or back right away instead of creating a scene.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

There are quite a few studies around now, that show large numbers of people who actually had natural immunity to measles, now have no detectable immunity, becuase they lack the "natural" booster doses required to keep "lifelong" immunity - life long. As Piotr says, that implies regular subclinical infection, just as regular subclinical chickenpox infection is helpful in keeping shingles at bay.

What was really interesting to me was last Sunday, Helen Petoussis-Harris actually admitted on Radio Rhema that the pertussis vaccine had a 3 year lifespan, and that because everyone kept dropping "out" of immunity, we wouldn't get on top of pertussis any time soon.

Yet the medical profession go on about "herd immunity?"

[Piotr]

Hilary, can you give me references to the studies showing that natural immunity does not last without "natural" boosters? Thank you.

I love the piece from IV starting with measles and the promises from 1967: http://insidevaccines.com/wordpress/2008/05/20/for-the-good-of-the-herd/#more-149

[Piotr]

in other words vaccine-induced herd immunity destroyed natural lifelong immunity....

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

Start with http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10381212 the abstract says it all... Click on related article.

I'd say the same is happening in poland, becuase of the abstract of this one http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12798638

This one from china http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20444295 shows the result of vaccination of mothers... but also that the vaccinated mothers who had natural booster infections did well.... the full text is free. They also acknowledge that vaccinating babies early leads to low titres long term, so their suggestion is to revaccinate vacccinated mothers before pregnancy to fill the hole caused by vaccinating the mothers in the first place.

This article:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8130864

states on page 293
"immunity to measles, at least that acquired by vacicnation, may not be
absolute but rather a continuum of clinical forms of measles illness."

You sort of want to smack them around the head and ask, "Just what are you saying here?"

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

in other words vaccine-induced herd immunity destroyed natural lifelong immunity.... ..................................Yes.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(98)02364-2/abstract

[Milla's Mum]

So actually - the herd immunity point made by provaxers is quite valid, but only because vaccinations have ruined 'natural' herd immunity meaning that we now have to rely on 'vaccine induced' herd immunity ad infinitum. Great. Thanks Big Pharma!

[Piotr]

@Milla's Mum, being more precisely, vaccine-induced herd immunity equals suppression of the measles virus (not eradication), therefore we never had "natural" herd immunity (because evolution did not want us to eradicate the virus) but rather naturally immune population except for children in the age group 1 - 20 that were "in the line" for getting immun and help others to maintain their immunity.

@Hilary, I checked your links and tried to research at my own. It looks like no-one has taken a look at the immunity of people who had measles naturally (they would be now 50+) and checked how the vaccination impacted their status. Although in other papers the african study is quoted and should ring alarm.

"For infectious diseases where immunization can offer lifelong protection, a variety of simple models can be used to explain the utility of vaccination as a control method. However, for many diseases, immunity wanes over time and is subsequently enhanced (boosted) by asymptomatic encounters with the infection. The study of this type of epidemiological process requires a model formulation that can capture both the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and immune system as well as the associated population-level transmission dynamics. Here, we parametrize such a model for measles and show how vaccination can have a range of unexpected consequences as it reduces the natural boosting of immunity as well as reducing the number of naive susceptibles. In particular, we show that moderate waning times (40–80 years) and high levels of vaccination (greater than 70%) can induce large-scale oscillations with substantial numbers of symptomatic cases being generated at the peak. In addition, we predict that, after a long disease-free period, the introduction of infection will lead to far larger epidemics than that predicted by standard models. These results have clear implications for the long-term success of any vaccination campaign and highlight the need for a sound understanding of the immunological mechanisms of immunity and vaccination."

"In the absence of vaccination, lifelong immunity is maintained through frequent encounters with infection, which act to boost the waning immune memory (this agrees with the findings of Whittle et al. 1999 (http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/276/1664/2071.full#ref-49)). However, when vaccination is introduced the prevalence of infection declines, which in turn reduces the amount of boosting and hence the level of immunity (in agreement with Muller 2001 (http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/276/1664/2071.full#ref-38)). What is more surprising is that the interaction between vaccination and waning immunity can lead to pronounced epidemic cycles in which the peak levels of infection can be of the orders of magnitude greater than the mean."
From here: http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/276/1664/2071.full#ref-38

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

There was a Japanese study that looked at the antibodies of naturally immune mothers and recommended booster shots but I can't find that study. It's here somewhere....

The fact is that the pertussis vaccine has done the same. Whereas in the past we only had one clinical dose of pertussis and our levels were kept steady by circulating bacteria, now a person can have clinical pertussis repeatedly.

[Piotr]

I think it is this one you are talking about (from your earlier post):

Scand J Infect Dis. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10381212#) 1999;31(1):17-9.
Reduced passive measles immunity in infants of mothers who have not been exposed to measles outbreaks.

Ohsaki M (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=%22Ohsaki%20M%22%5BAuthor%5D), Tsutsumi H (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=%22Tsutsumi%20H%22%5BAuthor%5D), Takeuchi R (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=%22Takeuchi%20R%22%5BAuthor%5D), Kuniya Y (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=%22Kuniya%20Y%22%5BAuthor%5D), Chiba S (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?term=%22Chiba%20S%22%5BAuthor%5D).
Source

Department of Pediatrics, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Japan.

Abstract

Natural measles infection usually confers life-long immunity which is transferred from mothers to their offspring, protecting them from natural measles until the age of about 12 months. Recently, however, natural measles has been observed with increased frequency in infants under the age of 12 months. Natural measles outbreaks in the city of Sapporo have been suppressed by widely applied measles vaccination. Passive measles immunity in 160 neonates (cord blood), born during the last 17 y in Sapporo, Japan was determined by a neutralization (NT) antibody test. The mothers of these infants had had natural measles infection during childhood. Geometric mean titres (GMTs) of cord blood NT antibodies gradually decreased after 1989 and the GMTs of the most recently born infants were significantly lower than those of infants born in the first few years of the study. These observations suggest that even in mothers who experienced natural measles in childhood, recurrent exposure to natural measles is necessary in order to maintain adequate antibody levels for effective passive immunity of their infants.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

Could be. And I think they recommended regular boosters to do what would have happened naturally, in the past.... My brain is in overdrive about something else, where a deadline is coming up. I've got to have everything done by second of september, which feels like it's racing up like a brick wall.

[cartersmom]

So they really have screwed things up royally - what else is new?

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

not much. That's the history of medicine since Day.dot .

[ema-adama]

There was a Japanese study that looked at the antibodies of naturally immune mothers and recommended booster shots but I can't find that study. It's here somewhere....

The fact is that the pertussis vaccine has done the same. Whereas in the past we only had one clinical dose of pertussis and our levels were kept steady by circulating bacteria, now a person can have clinical pertussis repeatedly.
I have read Dr Cherry making a case for pertussis infections in adults +- 100 years ago, with adults having milder cases than infants. Although, the disease was not as severe in infants under 6 months. (I read this a while ago, and can't remember where exactly. Happy to look for the paper if anyone wants it.)

[Piotr]

ema-adama

do you mean this one http://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/28/Supplement_2/S107.abstract ?

"Pertussis was first recognized as an epidemic disease in the 16th century. The classic illness is a three-stage illness (catarrhal, spasmodic, and convalescent), with a distinctive cough, and its characteristics today are similar to those in the prevaccine era. In the prevaccine era, the calculated attack rate was 872/100,000 population, and the majority of cases occurred in children <5 years of age. On average, there were 7,300 deaths/year; the death rate began to decline before antimicrobial therapy and vaccination. Reported pertussis in adults was rare, but numerous investigators noted that atypical cases of pertussis were common in adults. "

[ema-adama]

Yes, you can download the paper there. I remember now that the issue was that pertussis was atypical in adults. Ie adults were still spreading the disease despite not developing a clinical case. Prior to the introduction of antibiotics and vaccines

[ema-adama]

With regard to measles, I am pretty sure I still have immunity, despite having had the disease 25 years ago. (I was not vaccinated). My OBGYN tested my immunity to various diseases.

IMO the vaccine induced herd immunity argument for measles is valid. The question is finding the most responsible choice regarding your own child and others in your community. Some parents choose the MMR on schedule. Some choose on a different schedule. Some choose to reserve the vaccine for the event of an outbreak in their immediate community. Some choose to respond to all URTI's as if they are measles in the event of an outbreak and quarantine their children. Others choose to not vaccinate and not worry about their children having or spreading measles. I personally think parents who choose not to vaccinate have a social responsibility to quarantine their children in the event of a measles outbreak and a child with a runny nose.

Not a perfect plan, but neither are vaccines 100% full proof.

I think HiB is a different ballgame. Serotype replacement makes elimination of specific bacteria from circulation a goal that held more promise than real benefit.

All just my opinion of course. The root of the herd immunity argument is essentially about social responsibility. And there is never only one solution to a problem.

[Piotr]

The root of the herd immunity argument is essentially about social responsibility

I wonder many times, how many parents would ever demand vaccination of other kids knowing the side effects, the contamination of MMR with avian leukemia virus, history of Urabe AM9, history of atypical measles, history of introduction of measles vaccination, poor safety profile and many others...

Actually even without knowing all that above I find it hard to find parents in favor of forced vaccination (except for some fanatics in the blogosphere).

It seems that the argument about social responsibility is brought by all those authorities condemned to fullfil the WHO eradication plan.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

If vaccine induced herd immunity for measles is valid, then I want to know how it is that measles is spreading through NZ, since quarantine was implemented with a draconian iron fist. IMO the only people who can be spreading this are vaccinated kids who were in contact with the kids before they keeled over, or adult members of the household who are supposedly immune, either via vaccine or whatever.. and why aren't these "immune" adults becoming cases if they are not imune, and if they are immune, how are they spreading it?

[Seaweed]

MT was it not you who told me that our immunity to measles is a series of re-infections? I can def say I had measles naturally when i was a child, somewhere between age 2 and 4. When my kids got measles, the lymph glands under my jaw got quite sore. I cant remember the exact timing vs when my first child who got it, got it but if i was getting infected and fighting it off, i would have been infectious. My youngest also got rubella from a recently vaxed child and since the MMR is live, surely the rest of it will shed too?

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

MT was it not you who told me that our immunity to measles is a series of re-infections? I even have a medical paper that says that, and a doctor I know kept blood results in her practice which showed that.
I can def say I had measles naturally when i was a child, somewhere between age 2 and 4. When my kids got measles, the lymph glands under my jaw got quite sore. I cant remember the exact timing vs when my first child who got it, got it but if i was getting infected and fighting it off, i would have been infectious. My youngest also got rubella from a recently vaxed child and since the MMR is live, surely the rest of it will shed too?1% of kids get mumps from MMR, so that's a possibility.

[Seaweed]

1% of kids get mumps from MMR, so that's a possibility My oldest did when my mother accidentally took her for her jab. Funnily enuf none of the medical ppl, even the specialist they called in, knew what it was!

[ema-adama]

I wonder many times, how many parents would ever demand vaccination of other kids knowing the side effects, the contamination of MMR with avian leukemia virus, history of Urabe AM9, history of atypical measles, history of introduction of measles vaccination, poor safety profile and many others...

Actually even without knowing all that above I find it hard to find parents in favor of forced vaccination (except for some fanatics in the blogosphere).

It seems that the argument about social responsibility is brought by all those authorities condemned to fullfil the WHO eradication plan. Forced vaccination, required by law, is not unlikely.

However, that was not my point.

My point is that we have a social responsibility when sick with infectious diseases. How you choose to interpret that responsibility is open to interpretation. For now.

Ignoring your social responsibilty because it is inconveniant, is irresponsible, IMO. And I know my opinion is prett much worthless, it just makes sense to me.

Choosing not to vaccinate and choosing to spread disease (in the case of measles) seems like a recipe for disaster.

[Seaweed]

Choosing not to vaccinate and choosing to spread disease (in the case of measles) seems like a recipe for disaster. Often the prob is knowing when the disease is contagious and picking it. Plus for example, if your child is at school all day and you work, sometimes you may not notice the early stages are anything more than a mild cold. If you dont know measles is going around, you may also just think it is a mild cold. Plus if our immunity is a series of re-infections, who do you quarantine. absolutely everyone in the family until everyone is better?

[ema-adama]

I do not have a perfect answer. There is no perfect answer.

I personally am comfortable with not treating every sniffle as potential measles. However, if I know measles is doing the rounds, and my child comes down with a cold, I would proceed with quarantine.

Could my child still be contagious without my knowledge? Yes.

However, given that the MMR is not a vaccine I chose to make use of in my preadolescence children, it is the best I can do to keep my kids safe, and others who are more vulnerable in our society. Such as those on immune suppressing drugs, or those with immune deficiencies for whom measles could be fatal.

Our choices regarding infectious diseases are not made in a bubble.

Every person is going to have their own personal comfort zone with regard to balancing personal risk/benefit and social responsibility.

FTR, IMO people who vaccinate and take sick kids with fevers out into public are just as irresponsible as those who do not vaccinate and take sick kids out into public. This is me talking from a place of priviledge, I know.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

I did exactly the same ema - partly because I could never be accused of being knowingly negligent, but for me, it is just common courtesy.

I never took my kids anywhere, if they had ANYTHING, even a cold.

It's simply stupid, and plain rude in my opinion.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

who do you quarantine. absolutely everyone in the family until everyone is better?
within the family, I quarantined the sick away from the well, and when it came to pertussis, I slept with the said child for the duration, not with my husband.

The danger with pertussis is if the supposedly "immune" person is vaccine-immune, in which case they are carriers. If the person is disease immune, they are not carriers. Therefore it's different.

With chickenpox, and influenza, every surface is covered with fomites way before you even know, so in that situation, quarantine is tricky.

We made a 'choice' to homeschool the children, and to take on outside jobs, so I never felt a need to quarantine Peter, becuase him being outside making offal hole concrete lids, wasn't going to cause other people to be sick, and kiwifruit picking, orchard work, and pumpkin harvesting is also not a problem frankly.

We have a strict policy of quarantine when sick, and that will never be changed.

However, since making sure vitamin D levels are up over 80, and everything else is right, quarantining has been unnecessary for years, because we've got to the stage of not catching much at all.

[Seaweed]

my problem with run of the mill colds etc is sometimes the well ones of us have to go places to do stuff like get food. or work. or school. thankfully we rarely get sick and we have yet to give anyone a vpd as i have managed to pick them all before they were contagious. but yeah, vpds i am generally more cautious with outside exposure of all of us for sure as i would hate to be the non vaxer who spread it around.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

As per earthquake and Civil Defence instructions, at any one time, we have enough food in the house to be able to last three weeks. Plus a garden and free range hens.

Therefore, quarantine has never been an issue.

[Seaweed]

we sometimes are too poor to carry that sort of food stocks. we do usually have the freezer portion of the fridge full of some kind of meat i guess. yes my kids seriously yell "no mum not steak again" lol that said, we have a pump action shotgun and lotsa wildlife we can pot. ample seafood we can easily go forage. watercress and puha. the potato patch. not to mention numerous fresh water springs up the hills nearby. i would start with the seafood and only resort to the wildlife, other than rabbits, out of season in the event of a total civil disaster.

[Piotr]

The danger with pertussis is if the supposedly "immune" person is vaccine-immune, in which case they are carriers. If the person is disease immune, they are not carriers. Therefore it's different.

The second part of this statement I cannot follow. I thought that neither vaccine-"immunity" nor disease-immunity does not stop carriage. What is the evidence for the disease-immunity stopping carriage?

uff.... will I (we) ever understand all of it???

[Fièvre]

‘herd immunity’ is coined by A.W. Hedrich in his article ‘Estimates of the child population susceptible to measles,1900-1930’ (Am J Hyg. 1933,17:613-630). acording to this site : http://www.argusoogradio.org/nl/2010/12/gezond-en-wel-%E2%80%93-05-december-2010/

Hey Momtezuma : could have been in Dutch ! ;)

In plain english cf http://vran.org/about-vaccines/general-issues/herd-immunity/herd-immunity-the-misplaced-driver-of-universal-vaccination/

The term, ‘herd immunity’, was coined by researcher, A W Hedrich, after he’d studied the epidemiology of measles in USA between 1900-1931. His study published in the May, 1933 American Journal of Epidemiology concluded that when 68% of children younger than 15 yrs old had become immune to measles via infection, measles epidemics ceased. For several reasons, this natural, pre-vaccine herd immunity differed greatly from today’s vaccine ‘herd immunity’

[Piotr]

Estimates of the child population susceptible to measles,1900-1930’ (Am J Hyg. 1933,17:613-630) is available online

http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/17/3/613.extract

[dr suzanne]

I've been trying to figure out herd immunity for 2 years. The best I can do is that there was doc named Herdrich who studied the natural patterns of measles in cities and monitored the attack rate prior and after age 15. I have what I think is everything he wrote on the topic. The best I gather is that he said that back before vaccines, 95% of kids got measles prior to age 15. I think the vaxers ran with that and hijacked the term and have weaponized it. Here is a summary of herd immunity that you may find helpful. http://www.vacfacts.info/herdimmunity.html

[dr suzanne]

Yes epidemics were rare with that rate, but he never said there were no attack rates and that is where the vaxing idea of herd immunity deviates significantly. They want to give enough boosters so that there are no outbreaks at all. We can see that this will keep them in business forever, or until we are all dead.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

The second part of this statement I cannot follow. I thought that neither vaccine-"immunity" nor disease-immunity does not stop carriage. What is the evidence for the disease-immunity stopping carriage?

uff.... will I (we) ever understand all of it???Piotr, you will find the answer to that in my second book. The vaccine causes "original antigenic sin" resulting in a body which doesn't recognise ACT, and therefore doesn't "clear" the bacteria in the same way as an infection does.

[Momtezuma Tuatara]

Yes epidemics were rare with that rate, but he never said there were no attack rates and that is where the vaxing idea of herd immunity deviates significantly. They want to give enough boosters so that there are no outbreaks at all. We can see that this will keep them in business forever, or until we are all dead. The funny thing is that a vaccine can never create a population immunity level of 95%, the same way that the disease did.

Vaccine have firstly, a 5% non-responder rate, and a five percent failure rate. And the antibodies made aren't the same, which is causing huge measles problems for Africa right now, as per attached Bale article.

This could be a disaster in the making because the peripheral blood cells of wee babies don't process measles the same way as older babies. See Tishon attached

[Piotr]

Thanks Hilary, I realized that it is connected to ACT.