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View Full Version : Increased number of cases : a bias ?



Fièvre
29-03-10, 05:35 AM
On his site ( http://www.whoopingcough.net/index.htm ) Dr Doug Jenkinson writes :




There is currently discussion in the media about whooping cough making a comeback, particularly in adults. I think much of this is apparent rather than real. Recent research has shown that many adults with persistent coughs do indeed had whooping cough. This is not new information if the Keyworth study is representative. Looking for it is what is new.
Since immunization came in the 1950s, doctors have seen less and less whooping cough and modern doctors may never have seen a case, let alone heard the cough. I believe that much of the drop in notifications has simply been a reflection of the poorer diagnostic skills of modern doctors in respect to whooping cough. Now that some people are looking for it with more sophisticated tests such as PCR, blood antibody, and recently saliva antibody tests, they are finding it, but still notifications are very low, as the average doctor is still reluctant to diagnose it.

So although people are making a bit of a fuss about whooping cough right now, I don't think things have actually changed very much for 30 years (at least in the UK).

The crux of the issue is the number of cases diagnosed in Keyworth (1977 to 2008) compared with the rest of the country (for administrative purposes this is England and Wales). The figures show that national notifications have got less and less over the years, while the Keyworth figures have remained fairly constant (allowing for the 4 to 5 year cycles). On average, in Keyworth, we notify about 30 times as many cases as other doctors.

Keyworth News
Information on the Keyworth cases has been made available on this site in order for health care workers and epidemiologists to study the detail www.whoopingcough.net/keyworth (http://www.whoopingcough.net/keyworth/index.htm)

cartersmom
30-03-10, 03:55 AM
Hmmm I wonder why that is?

Momtezuma Tuatara
30-03-10, 11:25 AM
It's called observer bias, which Cherry wrote about years ago. simple. "you're vaccinated, can't be whooping cough."

TanyaL
30-03-10, 12:53 PM
And that makes a lot of sense. It's always funny when the Journal Pediatrics, run by the AAP, publishes an article that's really helpful in understanding why vaccination is not all it's cracked up to be.

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/100/6/e10

I read that several times last fall, trying to figure out the kids' coughs, and why DD was throwing up after coughing fits every day, but otherwise seemed pretty healthy. Still don't know if it was WC, but if doctors expecting to see pertussis because of low vaccination rates can't do that great a job diagnosing it (they swabbed everyone with a cough and sent it off for testing), well, then, it's mostly not that bad, is it. Get unlucky, kiddo's really young or unusually vulnerable and it's different, but that's the exception, not the rule.

I'm thinking about sharing the article with our pedi, I want some bloodwork for the kids soon and I thought she might find it interesting. Wonder how much pertussis she sees and doesn't recognize (but a nice lady, helpful for what I need her for).

bbrandonsmom
02-04-10, 04:28 AM
I read that about a month back in some vax book, I can't recall the author though. He mentions the same thing though.
I intentionally went looking for info on it, because a friend of mine said the obgyns up her way were having all the moms (moms only) vaccinated against it, "because it was making a come back". I asked her why only the moms, what about all the other adult family members who could catch it and pass it on? No answer for me, she prob hadn't thought of it.
Last year my aunt had this horrible cough for months and after the fact I mentioned to her perhaps it was whooping cough. She looked at me like I was crazy.
I don't think dr's look at a vaccinated disease when making a diagnosis, if the person had the vaccine. They know the vaccine wears off, so I don't understand why in adult cases, if not children, they don't run the test anyhow to see if it's a vaccinated disease. When my son was sick, the first thing they wanted to know is if he was vaccinated, because then they could "rule out" those diseases.

MinorityView
02-04-10, 09:32 AM
That is so crazy and contradictory.

Because the argument for herd immunity requiring everyone to vaccinate is that the vaccines are not 100%. Fools.

Momtezuma Tuatara
02-04-10, 09:48 AM
I had whooping cough in 2006, but only figured it out later on in the course of it... with an immunodeficiency, you go through a lot longer of a check list...