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Gitti
10-01-09, 05:31 AM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7819874.stm




'Unprecedented' rise in measles



Immunisation expert Dr Mary Ramsay: 'Every so often it can kill'


There is an "unprecedented increase" in measles cases in England and Wales, experts report.
Data from the Health Protection Agency showed there were 1,217 cases of measles from January to November 2008, the highest figure for over a decade.
And 75% of the 115 cases diagnosed in November were outside the traditional hotspot of London - in the north west, west midlands and south east.
The HPA's Dr Mary Ramsay said the rise was due to "relatively low" MMR uptake.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif We are concerned we may see measles epidemics take hold http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Dr Mary Ramsay


The number of measles cases in November 2008 was the same as was seen in the whole of 1996.
And even before numbers for December have been recorded, the figures show there were more measles cases in 2008 than in any of the previous 12 years.
Despite the recent surge of cases outside London, over half of the cases last year were in the capital.
As well as outbreaks in nurseries, primary and secondary schools, there have been outbreaks in traveller communities in the west midlands and south east.
The HPA says too few children are receiving both doses of the combined measles, mumps and rubella jab.
Sixty per cent of cases were seen in children aged under 15.
'Not fully protected'
Earlier this week the UK was named as one of the worst countries in Europe for measles, with case levels dashing global hopes of eradicating the disease by 2010.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45360000/gif/_45360950_measles_cases_gr_226.gif

A Lancet study said that in 2006-7 most of the 12,000 cases in Europe were found in the UK and four other nations.
Dr Mary Ramsay, an immunisation expert at the HPA, said: "We are still experiencing an unprecedented increase in measles cases across the England and Wales.
"This continued rise is due to relatively low MMR vaccine uptake over the past decade and there are now a large number of children who are not fully protected with MMR.
"This means that measles, which is highly infectious, is spreading easily among these unvaccinated children."
She added: "The HPA is concerned that we may see measles epidemics take hold.
"We again are urging parents to get their children vaccinated. Although MMR coverage is starting to improve, we cannot stress enough that measles is serious and in some cases it can be fatal. Delaying immunisation puts children at risk."
Dr Ramsay said around eight out of 10 children were now receiving one dose of MMR by their second birthday.
But she added: "We shouldn't forget that the children who weren't vaccinated many years ago are at real risk."
Serious illness
A Department of Health spokesman said an MMR catch-up programme, which began last August, aimed to help local primary care trusts to identify children who had not been given the jab.
In Scotland, the number of children receiving at least one dose of the MMR jab by the age of five has reached the target of 95% for the first time in December. Northern Ireland saw just four cases of measles last year. Although most children recover from measles, it can be a serious illness. One in 10 cases requires hospital treatment and it can lead to pneumonia, brain damage and even death.

Momtezuma Tuatara
10-01-09, 11:08 AM
BMJ discussion on the matter here (http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/337/oct01_3/a1856)and this is another reply the BMJ did not print:

Dear Sir,

Peter Flegg above misses the point, but confirms that his measure of risk benefit across the whole of UK population base, is solely based on laboratory confirmed cases.

Statistical inflation by the use of laboratory confirmed cases only, to vastly inflate estimated death rates from measles, is the most effective way to convince parents in 2008, that measles will kill far more people than it really will.

Statistical inflation of measles data isn’t just an English phenomenon.

The America CDC tells parents that in 2008, THREE in every 1,000 acute cases will die from Measles. (1)

A letter sent out on 8th August 2008 from the UK Department of Health, to doctors, quotes a UK measles fatality rate of 1 per 5,000 (2).

Christine Miller, (before laboratory confirmation became de-rigeur), details a table showing that the death rate in UK was 1.5 per 10,000, which is about 1 death per 7,500 notified cases, but for children under 1 year it was 4.8 per 10,000, and for those aged 1-2 it was 2.3 per 10,000. Nearly half of the deaths occurred in children with pre-existing conditions, and there was no mention of whether or not any of the cases were vaccinated. Christine Miller in 1985 said:

“Measles is widely considered a benign disease with a negligible mortality in developed countries. Certainly the number of deaths has fallen over the past 13 years, particularly in normal children...” (3)

The most accurate scientific assessment of how many people were infected yearly with measles pre-vaccine, to compare with what would happen if we didn't vaccinate today, is national serological surveys which look at the percentage of people with measles immunity.

So for instance, in New Zealand, just before the 1997 nationwide MMR campaign to supposedly prevent an epidemic of horrendous proportions, the public were NOT told that the Health Department knew that a serological survey in 1996, showed the New Zealand community immunity to measles was 94.7% (4). This sort of community “immunity” isn’t gained by just counting “laboratory confirmed cases” or historical notification rates.

The situation is the same in USA, where a serological survey pointed out that nearly all persons (99%) born in the prevaccine era were immune. Those born afterwards had a reduced immunity of 93%. (5) Given that pre-vaccine USA birth cohorts of the time were about 4 million, their historical notification rates are laughable.

Presumably UK national serological survey show similar measles immunity rates. These serological surveys demonstrate, that regardless of the historical “reported” cases on the UK health department website URL above, or the much narrower category of laboratory confirmed cases, you can know for a fact that every year before the measles vaccine’s use, across all ages, a number almost equaling the annual birth cohort, would have been “infected” with measles. That is why 99% of people born before the vaccine was introduced, have natural measles immunity.

Pre-vaccine, most parents did not take their measled children to the doctor, because most measles cases were mild, expected and a routine part of life. My parents didn’t take us to the doctor, and today, most parents of unvaccinated children don’t either, ...esecially now ..., if all they are going to be greeted with is a "lecture" about 'negligent parenting'.

“Notified” cases historically, and today, would primarily consist of children whose parents felt that either their diagnostic abilities, or nursing skills were inadequate, so by their very nature, most would represent more serious cases.

To estimate what would happen if UK returned to pre-1967 when there was no vaccine at all, the data from serological surveys must be the scientific starting point to estimate the actual cases/death risk analysis then, and today.

If 99% of the UK population born before 1967 in UK are naturally immune, then the notification of measles pre-vaccine on the UK health department website, has always been grossly underestimated. Using national serological surveys to estimate ACTUAL annual measles case numbers prevaccine, assumes 99% of each birth cohort to be the accurate annual number of measles cases before 1967.

The BMJ in 2006 uses "worst year data" saying, "In the era before vaccine, cases peaked every 2-3 years, with on average 100 deaths annually". (6) On the basis of pre-vaccine serological survey data, we can assume that eventually, without vaccines, 99% of a number almost equalling 690,013 babies (7) born each year in UK, would be infected across all ages.

Even increasing the death rate to allow for a greater number of births per year than in prevaccine years, an adjusted measles death rate using historical measles death rates, wouldn't come anywhere near 1 death per 2,000 actual cases of acute measles.

It is my opinion, that Peter Flegg been able to create a scientifically invalid method to compare the “worth” of a vaccine, with not vaccinating at all, ONLY by concentrating on laboratory confirmations, and eliminating serological surveys and notified cases from the mathematical equation.

Hilary Butler.


(1) http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/whatifstop.htm#measles (http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/whatifstop.htm#measles)


(2) 6 August 2008: From the Chief Medical Officer, the Chief Nursing Officer and the Chief Pharmaceutical Officer
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Lettersandcirculars/Professionalletters/Chiefmedicalofficerletters/DH_086837?IdcService=GET_FILE&dID=170309&Rendition=Web (http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Lettersandcirculars/Professionalletters/Chiefmedicalofficerletters/DH_086837?IdcService=GET_FILE&dID=170309&Rendition=Web)


(3) Christine Miller: “Deaths from measles in England and Wales 1970 – 1983) http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1417782&blobtype=pdf (http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1417782&blobtype=pdf)

(4) Department of Health. 1997. “Special vaccination campaign for measles in 1997”. Special Edition: Public Health & Epidemiology Bulletin, August.

(5) National Serologic Survey of Measles Immunity Among Persons 6 Years of Age or older, 1988-1994 http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/408098 (http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/408098)

(6) http://www.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/333/7574/890.pdf (http://www.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/333/7574/890.pdf)

(7) Number of babies born in UK in 2007. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=369 (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=369)