kiah
02-05-09, 05:22 AM
Well I was getting so sick of this attack on non vaccinated children being 'killers' and spreading disease. People have accused us of using 'false' information, and how we're endangering the community for not supporting herd immunity. So I put together little 'study' using a few Aust. govt./health sites to try to break it down. I'll add all my links first, then what I calculated from that. I know there are soooo many other factors which I haven't included, I just wated to make it as simple and straight forward as possible for a friend.
Statistics and Data from official Govt./Medical Websites
Pubmed.com
The pertussis vaccine has a 78% effectiveness rate.
Health.gov.au
Pertussis vaccination rate for 5 yr olds in Aust. Is 88.1% (which is the end of the childhood schedule).
Nwqphc.com.au
Pertussis vaccine lifespan is 6 – 10yrs.
“Mothers are the primary source of pertussis infection in infants...42%...”
news.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/)
“...the majority of whooping cough cases in the wollongong region last month (http://www.news.com.au/)were (http://www.news.com.au/)vaccinated (http://www.news.com.au/)..” (http://www.news.com.au/)
(I didn't see a link to the actual official documents for this, so I tend not to take news stories as fact unless I can find the statistical data, will investigate some more). (http://www.news.com.au/)
Abs.gov.au (http://www.news.com.au/)
Australia population for 2008 is 21 million (21,000,000) (http://www.news.com.au/)
0-14yrs = 3,949,000 (http://www.news.com.au/)
15-64yrs = 14,439,000 (http://www.news.com.au/)
65+yrs = 2,811,000 (http://www.news.com.au/)
spgn.com.au
For the years 2005/2006
10% of pertussis cases were in people aged under 20 yrs old.
20% of pertussis cases were in people aged 20 – 34 yrs old.
70% of pertussis cases were in people aged over 35 years.
Health.gov.au
Year and Reported Cases of Pertussis in Australia.
Shows a pattern where the number of cases increases every ¾ years, then decreases again, which is the natural pattern of pertussis.
Eg.
In 2006 there were 10,994 reported cases of pertussis in Australia.
In 2007 there were 5,343 reported cases of pertussis in Australia..
Here is What I calculated from the evidence
Pertussis Vaccination schedule has an effectiveness of approximately 78% (or less), and an uptake rate of 88.1% by 5 years old (the end of the childhood schedule).
There are approximately 4 million (4,000,000) children in Australia aged up to 14 years old.
Therefore...
~ 3,524,000 are Vaccinated according to the schedule. (actually less because babies aren't vaccinated).
~ 2,748,720 are immune (through vaccination)
~ 1,251,280 are not immune (either through ineffectiveness of vaccine or lack of vaccine). (actually more to include the babies who can't be vaccinated).
Almost 1 in 4 Children who are vaccinated won't be covered by the vaccine.
By age 11-15 years old, the vaccine will have worn off, and the child will no longer be immune.
There are 21 million people in Australia. Of these, over 17 million are over the age of 15 years.
If no one ever received any boosters the entire adult population would be un-protected.
Meaning...
~ 2,748,720 immune (through vaccination) children would be the ONLY people covered in Australia.
~ 18,251,280 Australian's would NOT be immune.
~ ONLY 13% of Australia would be immune (through vaccination).
There are no current statistics for the adult uptake of the pertussis booster vaccine. But lets use a 50% rate as an example.
There are 17 million Australians over the age of 15 years.
50% of 17 million is 8.5 million (8,500,000). With a success rate of 78% (or less)....
~ 6,630,000 adults would be immune (through vaccination), this would need to repeated every 10 years to maintain this rate.
~ 9,378,720 people in Australia would be immune (through vaccination).
~ 11,621,280 people in Australia would not be immune (due to ineffectiveness of vaccine or choice).
IF 100% of the Australian popluation did vaccinate (which is impossible in reality due to health reasons and certain religions).....
~16,380,000 would be immune (through vaccination)
~ 4,638,000 would not be immune (through ineffectiveness of vaccine).
In 2006, there were 10,994 reported cases of pertussis.
~ This is .05 of the entire Australian population.
~ 1,099 cases were in people aged under 20 years.
~ 2,198 cases were in people aged 20-34 years.
~ 7,695 cases were in people aged over 35 years.
Herd Immunity for Whooping Cough needs to be 90-94% of the population. Even if 100% of the Australian population vaccinated, due to the ineffectiveness of the vaccine that still would not be sufficient to provide herd immunity.
The vaccine does not stop transmission of the disease, even a vaccinated mother can still be a carrier to an infant.
100% of the population cannot be vaccinated because some people are actually allergic to the vaccines and/or have medical reasons which would prevent them from being able to have the vaccines.
EVERY person visiting Australia would have to be effectively vaccinated also to stop introducing the disease.
Also, newborns who aren't vaccinated or babies who aren't fully vaccinated would lower the percentage even lower.
The Vaccines need to be more effective and contain less harmful ingredients which prevent so many parents from trusting them.
If an average class has 30 kids
Then 88.1% are vaccinated
= 3 - 4 kids not vaccinated - could be due to medical reasons, religion, philosophical, etc.
The rest are, but with the inefficiency rates of 78% (I've read it may even be as low as 30%! but I can't find my links :D )...
= 5 VACCINATED kids are not immune.
Here's the problem, as you know whooping cough starts out as a cold - runny nose, the cough doesn't develop til later. When Abby has a runny nose I keep her home and treat her myself. I noticed in your status (I'm not having a go at you, please don't take this the wrong way) that you and another friend agreed it is ok to send your kids to school with a runny nose, but isn't that relying on vaccination status to protect both your child and everyone elses? A vaccinated child can then transmit the disease to a vaccinated person with adequate protection who then passes it on to their baby brother/sister.....but who gets the blame? As you can see there are more inadequately vaccinted kids than there are completely/partially unvaccinated kids.
Now, we don't have to agree on everything? Who does? That's what makes us individuals, but we can both agree on the facts and evidence, which is the vaccine effectiveness needs increasing. I dislike that my children are labelled 'killers' by the media when *I* made the choice - not them. As I said, my choice is always under review, and when, or if, the vaccine changes I *may* just choose to have them vaccinated :)"
Kiah
Statistics and Data from official Govt./Medical Websites
Pubmed.com
The pertussis vaccine has a 78% effectiveness rate.
Health.gov.au
Pertussis vaccination rate for 5 yr olds in Aust. Is 88.1% (which is the end of the childhood schedule).
Nwqphc.com.au
Pertussis vaccine lifespan is 6 – 10yrs.
“Mothers are the primary source of pertussis infection in infants...42%...”
news.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/)
“...the majority of whooping cough cases in the wollongong region last month (http://www.news.com.au/)were (http://www.news.com.au/)vaccinated (http://www.news.com.au/)..” (http://www.news.com.au/)
(I didn't see a link to the actual official documents for this, so I tend not to take news stories as fact unless I can find the statistical data, will investigate some more). (http://www.news.com.au/)
Abs.gov.au (http://www.news.com.au/)
Australia population for 2008 is 21 million (21,000,000) (http://www.news.com.au/)
0-14yrs = 3,949,000 (http://www.news.com.au/)
15-64yrs = 14,439,000 (http://www.news.com.au/)
65+yrs = 2,811,000 (http://www.news.com.au/)
spgn.com.au
For the years 2005/2006
10% of pertussis cases were in people aged under 20 yrs old.
20% of pertussis cases were in people aged 20 – 34 yrs old.
70% of pertussis cases were in people aged over 35 years.
Health.gov.au
Year and Reported Cases of Pertussis in Australia.
Shows a pattern where the number of cases increases every ¾ years, then decreases again, which is the natural pattern of pertussis.
Eg.
In 2006 there were 10,994 reported cases of pertussis in Australia.
In 2007 there were 5,343 reported cases of pertussis in Australia..
Here is What I calculated from the evidence
Pertussis Vaccination schedule has an effectiveness of approximately 78% (or less), and an uptake rate of 88.1% by 5 years old (the end of the childhood schedule).
There are approximately 4 million (4,000,000) children in Australia aged up to 14 years old.
Therefore...
~ 3,524,000 are Vaccinated according to the schedule. (actually less because babies aren't vaccinated).
~ 2,748,720 are immune (through vaccination)
~ 1,251,280 are not immune (either through ineffectiveness of vaccine or lack of vaccine). (actually more to include the babies who can't be vaccinated).
Almost 1 in 4 Children who are vaccinated won't be covered by the vaccine.
By age 11-15 years old, the vaccine will have worn off, and the child will no longer be immune.
There are 21 million people in Australia. Of these, over 17 million are over the age of 15 years.
If no one ever received any boosters the entire adult population would be un-protected.
Meaning...
~ 2,748,720 immune (through vaccination) children would be the ONLY people covered in Australia.
~ 18,251,280 Australian's would NOT be immune.
~ ONLY 13% of Australia would be immune (through vaccination).
There are no current statistics for the adult uptake of the pertussis booster vaccine. But lets use a 50% rate as an example.
There are 17 million Australians over the age of 15 years.
50% of 17 million is 8.5 million (8,500,000). With a success rate of 78% (or less)....
~ 6,630,000 adults would be immune (through vaccination), this would need to repeated every 10 years to maintain this rate.
~ 9,378,720 people in Australia would be immune (through vaccination).
~ 11,621,280 people in Australia would not be immune (due to ineffectiveness of vaccine or choice).
IF 100% of the Australian popluation did vaccinate (which is impossible in reality due to health reasons and certain religions).....
~16,380,000 would be immune (through vaccination)
~ 4,638,000 would not be immune (through ineffectiveness of vaccine).
In 2006, there were 10,994 reported cases of pertussis.
~ This is .05 of the entire Australian population.
~ 1,099 cases were in people aged under 20 years.
~ 2,198 cases were in people aged 20-34 years.
~ 7,695 cases were in people aged over 35 years.
Herd Immunity for Whooping Cough needs to be 90-94% of the population. Even if 100% of the Australian population vaccinated, due to the ineffectiveness of the vaccine that still would not be sufficient to provide herd immunity.
The vaccine does not stop transmission of the disease, even a vaccinated mother can still be a carrier to an infant.
100% of the population cannot be vaccinated because some people are actually allergic to the vaccines and/or have medical reasons which would prevent them from being able to have the vaccines.
EVERY person visiting Australia would have to be effectively vaccinated also to stop introducing the disease.
Also, newborns who aren't vaccinated or babies who aren't fully vaccinated would lower the percentage even lower.
The Vaccines need to be more effective and contain less harmful ingredients which prevent so many parents from trusting them.
If an average class has 30 kids
Then 88.1% are vaccinated
= 3 - 4 kids not vaccinated - could be due to medical reasons, religion, philosophical, etc.
The rest are, but with the inefficiency rates of 78% (I've read it may even be as low as 30%! but I can't find my links :D )...
= 5 VACCINATED kids are not immune.
Here's the problem, as you know whooping cough starts out as a cold - runny nose, the cough doesn't develop til later. When Abby has a runny nose I keep her home and treat her myself. I noticed in your status (I'm not having a go at you, please don't take this the wrong way) that you and another friend agreed it is ok to send your kids to school with a runny nose, but isn't that relying on vaccination status to protect both your child and everyone elses? A vaccinated child can then transmit the disease to a vaccinated person with adequate protection who then passes it on to their baby brother/sister.....but who gets the blame? As you can see there are more inadequately vaccinted kids than there are completely/partially unvaccinated kids.
Now, we don't have to agree on everything? Who does? That's what makes us individuals, but we can both agree on the facts and evidence, which is the vaccine effectiveness needs increasing. I dislike that my children are labelled 'killers' by the media when *I* made the choice - not them. As I said, my choice is always under review, and when, or if, the vaccine changes I *may* just choose to have them vaccinated :)"
Kiah